Projected farmgate milk price changes

Updated 25 March 2026

This page shows projected changes in UK farmgate milk prices over the next three months, based on recent dairy market movements.

Overview

UK wholesale prices continued their recovery in March with some sharp increases in commodity values
Average price for butter increased 8% while Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) increased by 15%. This resulted in Actual Milk Price Equivalent (AMPE) increasing to 37.4ppl. It is notable that butter prices rose and then lost some value towards the end of the month
Mild cheddar prices increased by 5%, while whey prices also increased, resulting in Milk for Cheese Value Equivalent (MCVE) increasing to 34.9 pence per litre (ppl)
Increased prices across the board have resulted in the Milk Market Value (MMV) increasing to 35.4ppl in March
Continued strong milk supplies exceeding processing capacity, both domestically and globally, are likely to keep some pressure on farmgate milk prices in the coming months

Table 1: Projected changes in farmgate milk prices over the next three months (pence per litre)

Reference month	Milk Market Value change¹	Price month (+3 months)	Liquid milk (non‑aligned)	Manufacturing milk	GB average
December 2025	-2.0	March 2026	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0
January 2026	0.3	April 2026	0.1	0.1	0.1
February 2026	1.3	May 2026	0.7	0.6	0.7
March 2026	2.7	June 2026	1.4	1.2	1.4
Cumulative change (latest three months)	N/A	N/A	2.2	1.8	2.2
Influence of Milk Market Value change	N/A	N/A	51%	44%	52%

Source: AHDB estimates

Additional information

The projected change is based on the strong link found between movements in the value returned to manufacturers from the market (MMV) and movements in farmgate milk prices
On average, it was found that a 1ppl change in the MMV will lead to around a 0.5ppl change in the overall GB average milk price, generally three months’ later
Differences will arise due to the markets in which milk buyers operate as well as the mechanism they use to set the milk price. These will impact the timing of price movements as well as the size of the change
Other factors which are likely to impact milk prices will be the degree of competition for milk in the market, changes to available processing capacity, import competition and contract negotiations
The Milk Market Value¹ (MMV) is a weighted average of AMPE and MCVE on a 20:80 basis. This was found to be the best predictor of movements in farmgate prices based on historical data. The analysis was done excluding prices paid on retailer-aligned contracts. The impact of the adjustment of AMPE and MCVE following the 2025 review has been accounted for, and the model updated

Visit the UK farmgate milk prices data and analysis page

Visit the Market Indicators and methodology page

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.