CPTPP accession presents potential wins for UK red meat and dairy

Trade modelling work on the UK joining the CPTPP highlights population growth, economic development and the expansion of middle-class consumers as the drivers for long-term opportunities for red meat and dairy products.

The analysis, compiled in conjunction with Harper Adams University, examines the strategic implications for UK agriculture of joining the CPTPP.

While initial opportunities are limited, it revealed potentially more expansive benefits in the future in the Asian and South American markets, driven by increased demand for red meat and dairy products.

Further opportunities for UK red meat and dairy may also be presented by other countries such as China, Taiwan, Ecuador, Costa Rica and Uruguay joining the CPTPP with the offering of preferential terms and either lowering or removing tariffs over time to other members.

Jess Corsair, AHDB Trade and Policy Senior Analyst, said: “The UK’s accession to the CPTPP is very much about playing the long game in terms of the potential benefits it will bring to UK exporters of red meat and dairy products.

“The expansion of the middle class in Asian and South American markets is likely to be a driver for these longer-term benefits for UK exports, reiterating the forecasts in our Prospects for UK agri-food exports analysis launched in January.

“Consequently, while we don’t anticipate any dramatic changes to trade overnight, the forecast increase in demand for pork and beef by 2031 in Japan, Vietnam, Mexico and Canada is encouraging.

"Similarly, opportunities for dairy with significant growth in Malaysia and Japan for butter and cheese, and for skimmed milk powder in Mexico will be areas that the UK can capitalise on.”